Heck of any year, to put it mildly. In the fascination with brevity, allow me to keep it short n’ sweet. Here’s my 2021 predictions.
The Plague
The very obvious question for you is if there’ll be a negative effect on real estate as a result of Covid-19/Coronavirus. Short answer, Yes. Long answer, Yes again. This especially so within the shopping center retail space. Restaurants are dependent upon the residual wages of an affluent society. America is surely an affluent society. The per capita for merely every societal accoutrement is from the charts. The overabundance of restaurants, gyms, spas, markets, and in many cases tire repair shops pale when compared with other societies, and in some cases Western Democracies. Ergo, America has suddenly realized doesn’t necessarily need numerous restaurants because it thinks it, considering eating in your house is more economically sane – currently of uncertainty.
My informational sources, like quarterly reports from Deloitte & Touché plus the CCIM (Certified Commercial Investment Managers), all indicate that place of work (for very obvious reasons), retail, multi-family are usually in for a rough patch the subsequent 18 months to mid-2022. But for industrial and warehouse space, every day life is exceptional great. The need to stockpile resources and provisions for consumers is very apparent.
On a miscellaneous note, home sales – which is not linked to commercial property, but is residential property, does exceptionally well. This robust disposition is caused by many Americans with abundant resources (and job stability), which allows the purchase of homes and/or an alternative home. This is also part-and-parcel inside a fear of raising interest levels; the requirement for ownership, personal space and solitude; and likely a bunker mentality – wherein existentially some fear that hordes of folks will desperately roam for food inside a Dawn from the Dead fake realism (and on the overload of cable news) – but superficially there’s no threat, but only in ones psyche. It’s important to remember, that inspite of the chaos, the unemployment minute rates are still only 6.7% adjusted November 2020.
Interest Rates
As I correctly predicted a year ago, rates hit a whole new low, spurring an increase in market activity. Based on the economists’ predictions I’ve read for 2021 – while there is some dissension inside their mindsets, interest levels will fluctuate to and fro, but really should be about a fifth of your point lower then where these people were at year end 2020. That calculates to about 2.90% for your 30 year fixed price.
Sellers’ Market
In most localities inside US, it’ll be a Sellers’ market, that’s an inverse relationship with demand. Meaning, once you have higher buyer demand, it is going to result in an increase in house prices, which will result inside a Sellers’ market.